Washington Ornithological Society

Five new state birds revisited Dennis Paulson InWOSNEWS 30, I asked WOS members to submit a list of the five birds they predicted would be added to the Washington state list next. I also got the experts to reply to the same request. We eight "experts" of the Washington Bird Records Committee gave it our best tries (in fits of indecision, some submitted lists of more than five, but they were pruned ruthlessly), and nine "non-experts," all ofthem also experienced birders, responded. The entire list is included for interest; embarrassment is impossible. The WBRC members picked these five species: Costa's Hummingbird (5 votes), Brown Thrasher (5), Mongolian Plover (4), Tricolored Blackbird (4), and Lesser Black-backed Gull (3). The runners-up were Arctic Loon, Spotted Redshank, Broad-tailed Hummingbird (all with 2 votes), Black-vented Shearwater, Least Bittern, Wood Sandpiper, Terek Sandpiper, Iceland Gull, Alder Flycatcher, Cassin's Kingbird, Thick-billed Kingbird, Gray Wagtail, Connecticut Warbler, Mourning Warbler, Canada Warbler, and McCown's Longspur. The hands-down winner-the participant with the guess closest to those of the experts-is Craig Miller, who listed 4 species from the "official" predicted list. No one else even came close, all the other contestants with one guess from the list except a high-ranking WOS officer, who got a perfect zero. Interestingly, of the WERC members, only one guessed all 5 species of the official list: Phil Mattocks, the most dedicated chronicler of Washington b!rd records for the past few decades! But of course this is only the "official" list; who knows what the actual list will be a few years from now? The nine "nonexperts" as a group chose the following five species. Mongolian Plover (4 votes), Spotted Redshank (4), Ross' Gull (4), Broad-tailed Hummingbird (3), and Tricolored Blackbird (3). Although only two species occur on both lists, I for one wouldn't call this one any less likely than the "expert" list. These people dream high-the elusive and glamorous Ross' Gull is at the top of their list but not even on the expert list. All birds that received votes are listed in Table 1. Interestingly, the WERC has already rejected sight reports of every species on the top-ranking lists but the Lesser Black-backed Gull, so there's been no lack of attempt to get these birds on the state list. Some of the reports we rejected may well have been valid records, but we are just as conservative in judging reports of rare species (please carry a camera if you expect to find a rare bird ... ) as we are liberal in expecting them to occur. You'll note all the names in the list are male; there are lots of female birders in Washington, but, as I have long observed, they don't treat birding as a competitive sport as we males do. Could this be the one genetically controlled behavioral difference between the sexes? After my earlier account, Ian Paulsen called to my attention an article by Don Roberson in Birding 20: 353-363, 1988, entitled "The 10 most likely additions to the ABA checklist." So the exercise has been conducted for all of North America, as well as California. Roberson asked ten leading field ornithologists to choose' these species, seven ofthem responsible for a particular part of the continent and three to choose species at large. The final list, in order, consisted of Yellow-browed Warbler, Bulwer's Petrel, Common Redshank, White-necked Petrel, Pallas' Grasshopper-Warbler, Pin-tailed Snipe, Collared Plover, Mountain Trogon, Greater Antillean Pewee, and Kermadec Petrel. Just as in California, the continentwide predictions bore little resemblance to the facts. Five years later, of this list only the Collared Plover and Pin-tailed Snipe have subsequently caught the eye of a North American observer. Of a list of 27 "honorable mentions," only the Collared Forest-Falcon, Eurasian Oystercatcher (May 1994); Cinnamon Hummingbird, Tufted Flycatcher, and Pine Bunting have been recorded. The additional species recorded-Stejneger's Petrel, Yellow Bittern, Whiskered Tern, Masked Tityra, White-throated Robin, Narcissus Flycatcher, and Yellow-faced Grassquitdidn't even receive a vote. Thus of 37 predicted species, 7 have turned up, while at the same time so have 7 species not on the list! Let's revisit this topic in five years, or at least after the next five species are documented as occurring in the state. Wonder what they'll be ...